CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-28T15:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-28T15:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26214/-1
CME Note: Fast CME in the NW following the associated M-class flare from AR3376 behind the limb (N25W99) and the associated bright magnificent eruption seen just behind the limb in AIA 131/304/193 in the NW starting around 2023-07-28T15:45Z. We can see the rotating flux rope in coronagraphs. There is also a more halo-like fainter shock which is likely backsided. Glancing blow at L1 is unlikely because the CME is either on limb or backsided, so arrival at L1 2023-08-01T10:08Z was attributed to a much more likely front-sided 2023-07-28T22:36Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T11:15Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2023 Jul 29 1249 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday 15:48 UTC. It has an estimated speed of 500 km/s and is associated with an M4 flare that took place on the west solar limb. There is a chance of directly affecting Earth's environment, otherwise, a glancing blow is to be expected in the first half of 1 Aug. Another partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday 23:12 UTC. This is associated with a large filament eruption that took place at the NE of the solar disk. This second CME is likely to arrive at Earth's environment at the same time as the first as it has a similar speed and was launched with only a few hours difference. Hence, the two CME are expected to be detected as one event at L1.Lead Time: 69.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-07-29T13:26Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement